Wednesday, December 15, 2021
A container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on October 14; Iran says it hit a mine, Singapore says its ships were struck by unknown projectiles, and Brent is above $105.
A cargo ship carrying about 2,500 containers sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, October 14. Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy said the ship hit a naval mine while sailing what it called an "illegal and dangerous route." The Associated Press reported it is the first time Iran has claimed a ship sinking from a mine during the war. Drop Site News carried the same Guard claim. Neither outlet could independently confirm the cause.
Singapore tells a different story. Its Maritime and Port Authority said two Singapore-registered cargo ships were hit by "unknown projectiles" while crossing the strait on Tuesday and Wednesday. One sank, and the other reached safety. All crew on the sunken ship were evacuated. No injuries were reported in either incident. Singapore called the attacks a breach of international law but did not name an attacker. It is still unclear whether the ship Singapore lost is the same one Iran says struck a mine. A mine field and a missile threat call for different responses, so the answer matters for every ship still waiting to cross.
The sinking caps the heaviest run of attacks on shipping since the war began on February 28. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) logged 15 attacks between October 6 and 14, with 11 of them in the last four days. Drop Site, citing Reuters reporting, counted 26 vessels hit over the past two weeks. The two counts cover different windows, so the toll sits somewhere between 15 and 26 attacks. That number is expected to climb. Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran is stepping up attacks to keep Washington from lowering oil prices before the November midterms. On Tuesday, Iran's navy said it had sent new surveillance units east of the strait and across the Sea of Oman.
Washington and Tehran again describe two different straits. US Central Command said American forces and regional partners "clearly control the Strait of Hormuz." It said US forces helped move more than 19 million barrels of crude on Monday. Ship-tracking data from Kpler, cited by Al Jazeera, shows how fast that flow can swing. About 20.8 million barrels passed through on October 8. Only 2.9 million moved on October 11. Before the war the strait averaged about 17.1 million barrels a day. The US military has been guiding ships along a route closer to the coast of Oman.
Brent crude closed at $105.69 a barrel on Tuesday and reached about $106.58 early Wednesday, according to Reuters figures reported by Al Jazeera. That is a moving number. Expect it to swing with each new attack. The Strait of Hormuz carried about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG before the war. Every scare there reaches American gas pumps and heating oil bills within days. A sunken container ship adds a new worry, because consumer goods move on this route too.
Keep your fuel tank above half, so a sudden price jump does not catch you on empty. A deeper food stockpile softens the grocery price increases that follow higher diesel costs. Shipping trouble can also thin the shelves for imported goods. Knowing how food shortages build lets you restock before prices climb. If your budget is already tight, start small. A few extra weeks of staples go further than most people expect. A modest reserve of cash in a crisis covers you when prices rise faster than paychecks.
Where it stands now: the cause of the sinking is disputed, no attacker has been independently confirmed, and attacks on shipping are continuing. Check your fuel level and your pantry this week. Be Prepared Not Scared!
