Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Iran says 4 tankers hit mines near Hormuz on Oct 29; UKMTO logged tanker attacks but cites a projectile and small-boat devices, the US has not confirmed, and Brent is near $116.
Iran says four oil tankers struck mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, October 29. The Revolutionary Guard navy said three tankers caught fire south of the strait after using what it called an "unauthorized southern route." Iran's army said a fourth tanker hit a naval mine east of the strait and could not move. Iran did not name the ships, give their flags, or report casualties.
An outside monitor did log attacks overnight. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center (UKMTO), run by the Royal Navy, reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile on an outbound transit, with no injuries. In another report, about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, UKMTO said a small boat attached two explosive devices to a tanker's hull above the waterline around 2212 UTC Thursday. The blasts started an engine room fire. UKMTO later said the fire was out, the crew was safe, and the ship was continuing to its next port. A separate UKMTO report noted a vessel on fire about nine nautical miles north of Khasab. It is not yet clear how many different ships these reports cover.
The accounts do not match. Iran describes mines. UKMTO describes a projectile and devices placed by a small boat. No report has tied a UKMTO incident to a specific tanker on Iran's list, so the count of four remains Iran's claim. CBS News reported no US confirmation of the strikes as of Friday morning. The Guard has challenged US Central Command to back up its claim that US forces cleared the shipping lanes of mines. Drop Site News had not covered Thursday's incidents as of this morning.
More pressure may be coming. US officials have warned Gulf allies to prepare for possible renewed US strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, CBS News reported, citing AP and the Wall Street Journal. Reuters reported that Qatari mediators handed Iran a new draft deal to end the war. A senior Iranian official denied receiving a new proposal.
Markets are pricing the risk. Brent crude for December traded near $116 a barrel early Friday, October 30, up about 1 percent overnight. US crude traded near $103. AAA put regular gasoline at about $4.23 a gallon on October 29, down 5 cents in a week. Pump prices trail crude by a week or more, so that dip may not last. These are moving numbers and are expected to climb if attacks or strikes resume.
Tanker attacks reach American households through the price of fuel. The Strait of Hormuz carried about a fifth of the world's oil before the war, so trouble there shows up at US pumps within days. Keeping your tank above half covers a week of essential trips for most commuters. A plan to prepare for a gas shortage sizes that week of driving before lines form. If you heat with oil or propane, booking a fill now locks in today's price before winter demand rises.
Conflicting reports from every side are part of this war. Identifying misinformation starts with asking who benefits from a claim and waiting for a second source. The Iran retaliation threat outlines what a wider war could mean at home, from cyber attacks to travel alerts. A current family emergency plan means everyone knows who to call if news breaks overnight.
Where it stands now: UKMTO has logged attacks on tankers, Iran claims four mine strikes, and the US has not confirmed any of them. Brent is holding above $110, and talks remain stalled. Check your fuel level and your plan this week. Be Prepared Not Scared!
