Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Iran says Hormuz is completely closed while the US says ships still pass; CNN reports US forces could strike within 96 hours of an order, unconfirmed.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is now completely closed. Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, made the claim on Sunday, October 26, according to the Tasnim and Mehr news agencies. He said ships must follow Iranian rules to pass and that no vessel breaking them is safe. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that the strait's shipping routes will not return to their pre-war form, state media reported.
Washington tells a different story. President Trump said last week that the strait is "totally ours." The head of US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, says more than 3,000 commercial ships have crossed with US military support over the past six months, CBS News reported. Neither account has been checked from outside.
Shipping trackers describe a strait that is restricted, not sealed. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center put combined traffic about 70 percent below pre-war levels in mid-October. TankerTrackers.com, cited by the New York Times, estimated that more than 12 million barrels of crude a day still moved through in October. Estimates vary widely by source, so treat any single number as a rough range. Drop Site News had not covered the closure claim as of this morning.
The other headline is about what could come next. CNN reported on Sunday, citing two US officials, that US forces could begin major new operations against Iran within 96 hours of an order. Possible targets reportedly include energy sites, military bases and nuclear facilities. No decision has been made. The officials pointed to timing after the November 3 midterms. Asked about an attack, the president said, "There's a possibility I will," while also mentioning a possible deal. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has said any US strike would bring a response several times greater. The 96-hour figure rests on unnamed officials and has not been confirmed by the White House or the Pentagon.
Talks are running at the same time. Diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian officials in Tehran on Sunday to push for de-escalation, according to Gulf News. Iran says the US must meet seven conditions before new talks.
Prices are tracking the rhetoric. Brent crude traded near $114.66 a barrel on Tuesday morning, October 27, after closing at $116.72 on Friday, its highest close since April. AAA put regular gasoline near $4.29 a gallon over the weekend. Both are moving numbers and are expected to jump if strikes resume, especially if energy sites are hit.
For a household, the useful move is to plan for the price spike before any decision is announced. The Strait of Hormuz carried about a fifth of the world's oil before the war, so a strike on energy sites would reach American pumps within days. Keeping your tank above half and booking a heating oil or propane fill before winter demand rises both lock in today's price. Reviewing the Iran retaliation threat helps you weigh what a wider war could mean at home, from cyber attacks to travel alerts.
A current family emergency plan means everyone knows who to call if news breaks overnight. When each government claims the upper hand, identifying misinformation starts with asking who benefits and waiting for a second source. Where it stands now: Iran says the strait is shut, the US says it is open, and no strike order has been reported. Check your fuel and your plan this week, while both are still cheap to fix.
