Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Brent fell below $100 on Nov 4 and AAA gas slipped to $4.12 on hopes for a deal, while UKMTO reported a tanker hit off Qatar on Nov 5.
Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on November 4 for the first time in about a month, CBS News and market reports said. The benchmark lost nearly 8% on the day and traded near $93.60 early on November 5, Gulf News reported. It had settled at $103.60 on November 3 after topping $115 in late October. These prices move with every headline from the Gulf, so treat each figure here as a snapshot.
Drivers are starting to see it. AAA put regular gas at $4.12 on November 4, down from about $4.27 in late October. EIA's November 2 survey had gas at $4.15 and diesel at $6.29, down just 6 cents in a week and $2.54 above last year. Diesel set its EIA record of $6.53 in September. Prices still vary widely by region, from $3.64 on the Gulf Coast to $5.30 on the West Coast. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said on November 2 that the national average could fall under $4 within a week. That is a forecast, and it depends on crude staying down. Goldman Sachs still sees Brent at $105 by December.
The drop rests on hopes for a deal. Trump told the Financial Times he has no immediate plans for new strikes, and he said the US is locked and loaded. In Fox News remarks reported by the BBC, he also said, "We have to do something large." Axios reported he remains undecided. Iran's Mohsen Rezaei called the US reply not convincing. Accounts of the plan on the table differ. Gulf News described a Qatari draft with a three-day sequence of steps. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran proposed shortening implementation from seven days to two, CBS reported. Drop Site News reported a deputy foreign minister still citing a seven-day roadmap.
The danger to shipping has not gone away. UK Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker was hit by two projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Qatar on November 5. UKMTO logged a record 30 attacks on commercial vessels in October, CBS reported. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also claimed that four tankers hit mines on November 4 and that two more tankers and a tugboat burned on November 5. Those claims are unverified. Al Jazeera could not verify whether they are linked to the attacks UKMTO has logged. Trouble in the Strait of Hormuz reaches your pump because a large share of world oil moves through it.
A lower price gives you room to rebuild a fuel buffer. Keep your vehicle above half a tank while prices are soft, since a gas shortage can empty local stations fast. If you have a generator and a safe place for cans, the rules for how to store gasoline long term will help you size a small reserve. If you rent or have no safe storage, the tank in your car is your reserve, and it needs no extra space. Move any savings at the pump into your cash on hand, because cash in a crisis buys fuel when card readers go down.
Where it stands now: crude is at its lowest in about two months, no deal has been announced, and ships are still being hit. Check your tank this week and decide how much of a buffer fits your budget. Be Prepared Not Scared!
