Wednesday, December 15, 2021
A Gulf disturbance has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical system this week, with flooding rain possible from Texas to Florida by the weekend.
A low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, tagged Invest 92L, is likely to become a tropical depression by midweek. As of the National Hurricane Center's Monday afternoon outlook, the odds of formation stood at 60 percent over 48 hours and 80 percent over seven days. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it will take the name Isaias. Those odds are the current read and will change once hurricane hunter aircraft sample the system. The first flight is scheduled for Wednesday.
The system formed along the coast of Mexico. Forecasters expect it to drift east for a couple of days, then turn north. Model tracks spread the possible landfall from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle. Wind shear over the northern Gulf could limit how strong it gets. Rain is the bigger concern. The hurricane center warns that heavy rain and flooding could reach parts of the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and Florida later this week and into the weekend. That risk holds even if the system never develops. Much of the Southeast is already saturated, so low ground will flood faster than usual.
The Atlantic has gone into October without a single hurricane this year. That makes it easy to tune out a storm that does not have a name yet. A slow season does not change what a late Gulf storm can do. Use the quiet days before any watch is posted. Walk through how to be prepared for a hurricane while store shelves are still full. Check the places at risk of hurricanes if you are new to the coast. Fill clean containers now so your water storage is ready if the tap goes bad.
If rain is the main threat where you live, learn what surviving a flood asks of you before water reaches the street. Move vehicles and stored supplies to higher ground early. Put together a power outage kit so a downed line does not leave your family in the dark. As of Tuesday, no watches or warnings are posted for the US coast. Check the hurricane center and your local weather office each day this week. Stay prepared, not scared.
