Wednesday, December 15, 2021
The 2026 El Nino is nearing record strength and has not peaked, with NOAA favoring a wet winter across the South and early storms already hitting.
The 2026 El Nino is now the strongest on record by one key measure. NOAA's October winter outlook gave better than 90 percent odds of a very strong event. The agency also said it could top every El Nino since records began in 1950. Weather.com reported on November 5 that the event is still gaining strength. Forecasters expect it to peak late this fall or early winter.
El Nino starts with warm water in the tropical Pacific. That heat shifts the jet stream and steers more storms across the southern United States. NOAA's outlook favors a wetter winter for the Southwest, the South and the East Coast. It favors a warmer winter across the northern tier. Forecasters point to 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the closest past matches.
The effects are already showing up. A flash flood in Brevard County, Florida, killed two people this month. Florida's state climatologist told WUSF that El Nino likely played a role. On the West Coast, AccuWeather said the first big atmospheric river could reach California by mid-November. The busiest stretch is expected in January and February. California declared a state of emergency back in September. Our El Nino emergency report has the details.
A wet winter brings a mix of risk and relief. Heavy rain raises the odds of river flooding, mudslides and coastal erosion. If you live where water can reach you, start with our flood readiness guide. Homes below a slope or burn scar should add mudslide preparation to the list. NOAA also expects drought to ease in parts of the Southwest. Some analysts warn the Colorado River Basin may see less help than hoped.
Flood insurance deserves a look today. Standard homeowner policies exclude flooding. A new National Flood Insurance Program policy usually takes 30 days to start. Stage sandbags and clear your drains while the ground is still dry.
Where it stands now: the El Nino has not yet peaked. Forecasters expect its strongest effects from December through February. This week, check your flood zone, clear your gutters and set up weather alerts on your phone. Be Prepared Not Scared!
